Macquarie Warns Oil Could Hit $200 if War Drags Into June
Oil may hit a record $200 a barrel if the Iran war drags on till June, with the Strait of Hormuz staying shut, Macquarie Group Ltd. said.
Brace for $200 Oil If War Lasts Until June, Macquarie Warns
Oil prices could soar to an unprecedented $200 a barrel if the ongoing conflict involving Iran extends through June and the critical Strait of Hormuz remains closed to tanker traffic, according to a stark warning issued by Australian financial services giant Macquarie Group Ltd. The forecast represents a worst-case scenario that would shatter previous price records and send shockwaves through the global economy, dramatically increasing costs for consumers and businesses alike.
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, serves as the world's most important oil chokepoint, with roughly 20 percent of the global petroleum supply passing through its waters each day. A prolonged closure would effectively cut off exports from several major Gulf producers, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iraq, creating a supply shortfall that markets would struggle to absorb. Macquarie analysts emphasized that even partial disruptions to traffic through the strait would be enough to push prices well beyond current levels, given already tight global supply conditions.
Energy markets have already reacted sharply to the escalating tensions, with benchmark crude prices climbing steadily as traders price in the risk of sustained supply disruptions. The $200 price target assumes a scenario in which diplomatic efforts fail to resolve the conflict and naval operations continue to prevent the safe passage of oil tankers through the strait for several months. Macquarie noted that global strategic petroleum reserves could provide some temporary relief, but would be insufficient to offset such a significant and prolonged supply interruption.
The implications of $200 oil would be severe and far-reaching, analysts warned, potentially tipping major economies into recession and fueling inflation worldwide. Consumers would face dramatically higher prices at the gas pump, while industries dependent on petroleum products would see their costs skyrocket. Governments would likely be forced to release emergency stockpiles and consider extraordinary measures to stabilize energy markets. Macquarie urged policymakers and investors to prepare contingency plans, stressing that while the scenario remains a tail risk, the consequences would be too severe to ignore.